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Concerns are mounting regarding artificial intelligence's potential to disrupt various sectors and individual companies. A notable incident involved IBM, whose shares plummeted by 13%—its steepest single-day loss since 2000—after AI startup Anthropic PBC announced its Claude Code tool could modernize COBOL, a key asset for IBM. Beyond individual stock movements, a broader apprehension is emerging: could AI displace white-collar workers en masse, leading to a significant U.S. economic downturn within a mere two years?

Citrini Research, an investment analysis firm, recently published a report titled "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis." This document explores a hypothetical scenario where, by 2028, AI's increasing adoption results in an unemployment rate exceeding 10%. The report suggests that this would cause a drastic fall in aggregate demand as income levels decline, creating a self-reinforcing negative cycle.

The Citrini report, while presented as a scenario rather than a definitive forecast, significantly impacted market sentiment, leading to a 1% decline in the S&P 500 index on Monday. The central idea of this scenario is that as AI technology advances and becomes more cost-effective, businesses will increasingly opt to replace human labor with AI. The cost savings from these layoffs would then be reinvested into further AI development, enabling more job reductions. This cycle of job displacement would lead to reduced consumer spending, prompting companies facing margin pressure to deepen their AI investments, thus intensifying the economic spiral. The report describes this as "a negative feedback loop with no natural brake."

This hypothetical situation, resulting in what Citrini Research terms "Ghost GDP," signifies economic output reflected in GDP and corporate profits but failing to stimulate the broader economy through circulation. While the report raises significant questions, many economists have voiced skepticism. They argue that the report's assumptions are overly speculative and that fundamental economic principles, such as Say's Law, which posits that increased supply generates its own demand, would counteract such a severe downturn. Additionally, some economists suggest that AI could ultimately enhance overall employment by providing existing workers with advanced tools and creating new job categories.

Ultimately, the long-term effects of AI remain uncertain. While such dire predictions should be considered carefully, a prudent investment strategy might involve focusing on companies with robust long-term visions that can effectively integrate AI to empower their workforces, rather than solely to replace them.